If the Reds can't find a viable fifth starter, they'll probably need to plead the fifth. Or collectively drink a fifth.
Because without some production from the back end of the rotation, it's hard to imagine Cincy having a winning year, let alone a contending one.
Right now, unless someone else comes out of the woodwork with a monster spring, it looks like the battle for the final spot in the rotation will boil down to right-handers Micah Owings and Homer Bailey.
Owings, who became a Red as part of the Adam Dunn trade, has shown spurts of productivity in the past but his overall big-league record of 14 and 17 doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Moreover, because he's a rarity, a pitcher who can hit with authority, Owings has earned more plaudits with his stick than with his arm. Owings hardly rates as a sure thing.
But then again, neither does Bailey. As one of the Reds' most heralded pitching prospects ever, a lot was expected of Bailey. Thus far, he hasn't delivered. In Bailey's defense, however, there are plausible reasons to explain why his career, to this point, has failed to take off.
In many ways, Bailey is still a precocious pup at age 22. It's not surprising that he's feeling his way through the intricacies of professional baseball. Having been shuttled between the majors and the minors over the last two years also hasn't helped. And then there have been some injury issues that have retarded Bailey's progress.
Yet, there's one thing, above all else, that Bailey has going for him. His upside. When you can bring the heat like Bailey can, there's always a chance you could blossom into a premier pitcher. Despite his rather lackluster results thus far in the bigs, the lanky Texan still has a world of potential going for him. He's just as likely to bust out and become a legitimate horse, as he is to continue to struggle.
And that's why, with all things being relatively equal, the Reds should make it a priority to get Bailey into the rotation. No disrespect to Owings, who comes across as a likeable, hard-working and team-oriented guy but his ceiling is nowhere near as high as Bailey's.
Owings could very well develop into a very serviceable and reliable starter. But he appears to have limits. Bailey, on the other hand, offers something much more. Given the right set of circumstances and a coming together of his talent, this youngster could make some big noise. Legitimate stardom for Bailey is not out of the realm of possibility.
In a best-case scenario, Owings would become solid. Bailey, meanwhile, could become super. That difference alone should be enough to give Bailey the nod in what is becoming an intense tussle for that open spot in the rotation.
Thus far this spring, neither of the candidates is giving an inch. You're left to wonder who's going to blink first. Both have been next to scintillating.
Owings has been superb while winning two games and sporting a miserly 1.23 ERA. Plus, Owings is demonstrating a serious strikeout knack, having punched out 16 batters in 14.2 innings of work.
Not to be outdone, Bailey has been just as impressive. Throwing with purpose and a command that's been heretofore missing, the young hurler has been masterful in allowing but one earned run in 10 innings. Couple that with the fact that Bailey has issued just a lone walk during that span and it looks like Homer might finally be onto something.
Prior to now, Bailey has fought his control and permitted way too many walks. All of a sudden, he's locked onto the strike zone, a possible sign that he's growing in confidence, maturity and control.
And if that's the case, Bailey is on the verge of breaking through. The Reds may not have to wait much longer to start getting some handsome dividends from their still promising righty.
But Owings isn't making it easy for Bailey. By fashioning a dynamite spring, Owings has forced Bailey to step up and compete like he never has before. It probably isn't coincidental that Bailey's emergence has coincided with the challenge that Owings is presenting.
Owings may be serving the Reds on two fronts. First of all, he's showing the brass that he has the makings to be a solid starter. But, more importantly, his efforts are arguably making Homer Bailey better. He's compelling Bailey to rise to the occasion. If Owings made no other contribution to his new club than that, he'd still be earning his salary. He's making Bailey work and strive hard. By doing so, the Cincy organization is in his debt.
Regardless of who emerges victorious from this pitched battle, excuse the pun, no one can claim that the ultimate winner didn't have to earn it. As it should be, this was a job secured by merit. Nothing was handed to anyone. The results on the field determined the outcome.
But with the differential between these friendly rivals being so slight, manager Dusty Baker will have a tough decision to render. Does the skipper side with the more experienced hurler with the better track record? Or does he cast his eye to the future, in hopes of hastening the development of a young buck that could become a flat out stud?
Either way, it won't be an easy call but with so little separating the two, it says here the Reds must go with the pitcher who can bring the greater return. And that's Bailey.
Another point to consider is that Owings seems a much better fit in the bullpen than would be his younger teammate.
So take the wraps off Bailey and let him have at it. Just turn him loose and see what happens. It's time the Reds allow Bailey to try to hit a homer. On the mound that is.
The real hitting should be left to Owings.