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KRIVSKY'S BIG GAMBLE!
Please forgive this reporter for being a bit tardy in responding to the monster trade the Reds executed this past Thursday.
I've just now gotten over the shock. My head has at last stopped spinning. I'm finally able to gather myself.
Because what G.M. Wayne Krivsky wrought with his eight-player swap knocked me on my posterior. It sent me crashing to the floor. And it's taken me a while to regroup and regain my senses.
And like countless Reds' fans, I'm left to wonder what are the long-term ramifications of such a monumental deal?
But one thing is quite obvious. Krivsky had better be right about this daring move he's made. He better not whiff on this trade.
Because if he does, not only will Krivsky's legacy be forever tarnished but the Reds will be paying a terrible price for years to come.
And according to virtually every analysis available of this transaction, the Reds got the short end of the stick. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks Cincy scored big with this dramatic maneuver.
More disturbing is that the early returns on the trade aren't all that encouraging. Reliever Gary Majewski, arguably the centerpiece of the deal from Cincinnati's perspective, has given up runs in both his appearances in a Reds' uniform.
Moreover, graybeard shortstop Royce Clayton, brought in primarily for his defensive acumen, has already miscued in the field and committed an error.
Only pup reliever Bill Bray, a highly regarded 23-year-old lefty, has looked worth the investment having picked up a nice win in a 3-2 Saturday night victory.
What seems so problematic about this trade is that while it may shored up an absolutely dreadful bullpen, it could have put a major crimp in the Reds' offense.
Is it just coincidence or a frightening portent of things to come that in the two of the last three games without the departed Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez in the lineup, the Reds have been held to a paltry seven hits?
No one can blame Krivsky for tiring of the relief corps continual ineptitude and trying to do something about it. But in his quest to rectify this glaring weakness, he may have rushed to judgment and settled for much less than he could have received had he been a bit more patient.
But that was the Catch-22 Krivsky was confronting. Both he and manager Jerry Narron knew that if no change was made in the bullpen's makeup, the Reds were dead in the water. Advancing to the postseason would be nothing more than a pipe dream. So much pie in the sky.
And time was running out on this season. The Reds were on the clock. Inaction and the status quo probably meant this year was going down the drain.
So Krivsky boldly reacted and moved to correct his team's fatal flaw but in doing so, he may have created holes in other areas just as vital.
Losing Kearns' productive bat leaves a gaping hole in right-field. And while the organization is high on his projected successor, there's nothing in Chris Denorfia's past that indicates he'll be able to offset, to any meaningful degree, the loss of Kearns.
Potentially, just as damaging as Kearns' absence could be the departure of the talented but sometimes erratic Lopez.
When it comes to offense, the veteran Clayton can't even begin to compare to the man he's replacing. Lopez hits for a much greater average and possesses a hell of a lot more firepower when it comes to homers and ribbies.
Moreover, Lopez is one of the NL's best base-stealers and can ignite an offense in ways Clayton can only dream about doing.
No right thinking insider would dispute the fact that with Lopez gone and Clayton now on board, the Reds' lineup has taken a substantial hit.
Curiously, the prime reason why Reds' management was willing to part with Lopez was that they were down on his defense. In their estimation, he much too inconsistent in the field.
And yet Clayton, the man the Reds are hoping will solidify the infield has committed nearly as many errors (13) as has Lopez (15). Thus, there seems to be a disconnect in the Reds' logic.
One other point needs to be made in regards to Lopez' exit. At 26, he's just now starting to come into his prime. Meanwhile, Clayton is on the downside of his career having turned 36.
At one the most crucial positions on the field, the Reds have sacrificed a whopping 10 years. Lopez figures to be around a good long while Clayton's shelf life has about run out.
Now, if the Reds had someone in the minors who was on the cusp of emerging at short than maybe casting off Lopez could be justified. But with only an elderly Clayton and very little else set to man the position for the foreseeable future, the Reds' and Krivsky are running a huge risk.
One that could easily backfire and haunt them for years.
So on the surface, it's not hard to understand why nearly every observer thinks the Reds erred in making this deal. To the experts, Cincy sacrificed much more than was necessary.
They gave away two productive youngsters in Kearns and Lopez not to mention hard-throwing Ryan Wagner who many believe still has plenty of upside.
What they got in return was a workhorse reliever in Majewski, a legitimate pitching prospect in Bray, an aging Clayton and two others who probably won't ever make a mark at the major league level.
Did the Reds get enough? Not from where this reporter is sitting. The cost seems unnecessarily high for what they got back.
But to be fair, we've got to let things play out for at least a season or two before we can come to any sort of judgment. Time will tell whether Krivsky was being enlightened or if he was just a colossal boob.
Yet, he deserves credit for his proactive posture. He was willing to take a tremendous chance and incur the wrath of the Reds' faithful in order to try to keep his club afloat and competitive.
Krivsky was indicating to everyone that his focus is just as much on the present as it is on the future. Krivsky isn't bashful about declaring that his intent is to win now. The first-year exec wasn't about to see the 2006 campaign slip away without making a gutsy move in order to save it.
Whether he was right or misguided remains to be seen but there's no disputing that a change of considerable proportions has taken place.
The question is was that change for the better? Much of Wayne Krivsky's reputation will ride on the eventual answer! |